A modeling analysis released by the Stop TB Partnership shows that under a three-month lockdown and a protracted 10-month restoration of services, the world could see an additional 6.3 million cases of TB between 2020 and 2025 and an additional 1.4 million TB deaths during that same period.
The new study was commissioned by the Stop TB Partnership in collaboration with the Imperial College, Avenir Health and Johns Hopkins University, and was supported by USAID. The modeling was constructed on assumptions drawn from a rapid assessment done by The Stop TB Partnership on the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic and related measures on the TB response in 20 high-burden TB countries—representing 54% of the global TB burden.
The modeling focused on three high burden countries—India, Kenya, and Ukraine—and extrapolated estimates from those countries to create global estimates of the impact of COVID-19 on TB.
According to the new study, with a three-month lockdown and a protracted 10-month restoration of services, global TB incidence and deaths in 2021 would increase to levels last seen in between 2013 and 2016 respectively, implying a setback of at least five to eight years in the fight against TB.
To minimize the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on TB, save millions of lives and get the world back on track in achieving the UNGA targets, national governments need to take immediate measures that ensure the continuity of TB diagnostic, treatment and prevention services during the lockdown period and undertake a massive catch-up effort to actively diagnose, trace, treat and prevent TB.