AFEW: Annual Report 2001/2002 >> The NIS region and its challenges

Annual Report 2001/2002

The NIS region and its challenges

The HIV/AIDS epidemic

Despite the late start of the epidemic, the Newly Independent States (NIS) of the former Soviet Union (FSU) are currently experiencing the fastest growing epidemic in history. Current forecasts suggest that five million people in the Russian Federation (RF) will be living with HIV/AIDS by 2005.

Officially Registered Cases of HIV Infection in the Russian Federation, 1 Jan 1987 - 31 Dec 2002 (based on data from the Russian Federal AIDS Centre)

Ukraine experienced a similar explosion in the number of HIV/AIDS cases, and the epidemic is also spreading throughout many of the other NIS countries.

The NIS is experiencing a 'typical' HIV/AIDS epidemic, in which initially a specific group is most affected, and with time, the general population becomes at risk. In the NIS, the specific group consists of injecting drug users (IDUs), who represent 70% to 95% of all new infections in the region1.

Judging, however, from the high rates of sexually transmitted infections (STIs)2, the NIS is at high risk for increasing rates of sexually transmitted HIV, and in the medium-term, heterosexual contact is expected to become the primary route of HIV transmission. AIDS is particularly insidious because persons can live up to 10 years post-infection without any symptoms of illness. Thus, the impact of the epidemic, which will be tremendous, remains hidden for many years.

The impact

Looking at this epidemic's consequences, we can see that a disaster lies in wait.

Within a few years, millions of infected people will need intensive medical care. How will health care systems within the NIS be able to cope either financially or from a human resources point of view? A recent study3 showed that currently only 1% of those registered with HIV/AIDS in the RF, Ukraine, Belarus, and Republic of Moldova have access to effective treatment through a combination of antiviral drugs, also called triple therapy. No treatment at all is available in several of the other NIS countries.

HIV/AIDS mainly affects youth. More than 80% of those infected are under the age of 30 – young people who are making plans for their future, going through school, finding jobs, falling in love or starting a family. In short, the epidemic is affecting the future of the NIS. Without proper treatment, these young people are likely to die before they reach the age of 40. This human tragedy must be stopped.

The challenge

Despite these grim figures and the bleak forecast, we still have hope. Given the high level of education of the populations in the NIS countries and the delayed start of the epidemic, it is possible to stop this time bomb by applying lessons learned elsewhere. However, to halt the impact of this disaster and to prevent the NIS from heading towards the 'African scenario' requires immediate, substantial, and appropriate action. For the founders of AIDS Foundation East-West (AFEW), the need to seize this opportunity has driven the creation of the organisation.