Blind Response: Experts Offer Different HIV Estimates in Russia
Author: Anastasia Petrova, Russia
According to the UNAIDS, Russia ranks third based on the rate of the new HIV cases in the world after South Africa and Nigeria. However, there are inconsistencies in the data on HIV incidence dynamics in the country provided by different offices.
In May 2017, it became clear that there are some discrepancies in the data on the growth rate of new HIV cases in Russia presented by different government offices. Comparing statistics for the previous years, Veronika Skvortsova, Russian Minister of Health announced that in 2016 HIV incidence dropped down twofold.
“We had the total of 86.8 thousand new cases of HIV, while a year ago, in 2015, there were over 100 thousand. Thus, the number of HIV cases fell down by 15%,” said Veronika Skvortsova.
However, Vadim Pokrovskiy, Head of the Russian Federal AIDS Centre presented different data, which, vice versa, demonstrate a growing number of HIV cases in the country. The scientist told about the growth of HIV incidence by 5.3%. According to the recent data of the Russian Federal AIDS Centre presented shortly before the World AIDS Day, in the first 10 months of 2017 regional AIDS centres reported 79,075 new cases of HIV. This is 2.9% more than during the same period of 2016. This data shows the continuing growing trend in HIV incidence.
Such discrepancies became visible to the public, so the Ministry of Health offered relevant explanations on its official website. In the article dated 17 May 2017, it is written that “in his report, Dr. Pokrovskiy presents the results of scientific epidemiological monitoring of the Institute of Epidemiology of the Federal Service for Surveillance on Consumer Rights Protection and Human Wellbeing (Rospotrebnadzor) based on the positive laboratory tests for HIV and not the statistical data on HIV incidence for the previous year. The incidence, however, shows the number of people with the confirmed diagnosis (not the number of laboratory tests).”
Thus, according to the Ministry of Health, the calculation method used by Rospotrebnadzor is less accurate considering that one person tested for HIV several times is calculated as several new cases. Some experts, however, say that both statistical approaches may be used as there is a growth of the HIV incidence in the country, but the rate of such growth is decreasing.
The data on the total number of people living with HIV in Russia is also not quite clear. The Rospotrebnadzor report mentioned above states that as of 1 November 2017 there were 924,608 Russian citizens living with HIV. As for the Ministry of Health data, we have not received any reply to our official request on the number of people living with HIV as of the date of this article. The Ministry fails to submit such data to the UNAIDS to prepare annual reports on the HIV epidemic in the region.
However, some data suggest that the number of people living with HIV in Russia is much higher. Thus, 25,000 Russian citizens were tested in the course of the famous free anonymous testing campaign run by the Ministry of Health in a train carriage, which was held from 7 July to 28 October 2017. Out of them, 375 results were positive. If such statistics is extended to the general population, up to 1.5% of people in Russia may be diagnosed with HIV.
Creating a register
Experts say that the country needs an accurate estimate of the number of people living with HIV.
“The first and the most important goal is to understand the situation and have full information on the number of people living with HIV, the treatment regimens they use and the need in medicines,” says Sergey Krayevoy, Deputy Minister of Health.
It is planned to introduce a Federal Register of People Living with HIV in Russia to analyse the scope of medicines needed and to systematize the statistics. Such database will be administered by the Ministry of Health. Apart from the diagnosis, records will also be made on the health state of the patients, medicines prescribed to them and other data allowing to see the full picture of their health. Thanks to such register, a person relocating within the country will be able to get help in any region.